Overview
After three months of above-average rainfall, New Jersey recorded a below-average precipitation month in October. With only one major event coming from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias, the rest of the month was remarkably dry. The dryness was punctuated by a prolonged rain-free streak. Not a raindrop or snowflake fell across New Jersey between 10/18 and 10/31, marking a statewide 14-day precipitation-free stretch that will carry over to November.
The late-month dry spell led to portions of Hunterdon, Warren, Morris, and Sussex being classified as “abnormally dry” (D0) in the 10/27 release of the U.S. Drought Monitor. The percentage of New Jersey classified as “abnormally dry” increased slightly from 21.6% on 9/29 to 28.3% on 10/27 (Figure 1). The dry conditions led the New Jersey Forest Fire Service to begin staffing fire towers in the northern fire division, with the entire state classified with a moderate risk for wildfires. The dry conditions along the coast improved slightly in parts of Monmouth County, but low groundwater concerns remain, especially along the eastern edges of the Pine Barrens.
Figure 1. Change in U.S. Drought Monitor status during October 2026.
New Jersey also experienced one notable storm event as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias crossed over New Jersey on Sunday, October 11. The event was characterized by moderate to heavy rain throughout much of the day. Since the rainfall was spread out over many hours, flooding impacts were relatively minor compared to some of the flash flooding events the state experienced in late summer. It is worth noting that this was the month’s only significant rainfall event. Statewide precipitation for the rest of the month totaled only 0.68”, and without Isaias, this would have ranked as the 4th driest October since 1895.
While it was mild month across New Jersey, the progression of the seasons was evident in the overnight temperatures. October typically marks the end of the growing season in New Jersey, as nights with frosts and freezes make their return. The state’s first freeze occurred on Tuesday (10/6) at the NJWxNet station in Walpack (Sussex County) when the morning temperature dropped to 31°F. The early October freezes were confined to Sussex County, while more widespread freezes occurred the weekends of 10/18–10/19 and 10/25–10/26.
The National Weather Service has declared an end to the growing season in several New Jersey counties due to widespread below-freezing temperatures, but several locations around the state have not yet reached freezing (Figure 2). Most of these stations are near the urban centers of New York City and Philadelphia. Coastal locations and areas around Delaware Bay have also remained above freezing due to the influence of the nearby water. Climatology suggests these locations typically see their first freezes near the middle of November.
Figure 2. Progression of first freeze dates and NWS end-of-growing-season dates across New Jersey during fall 2026.
Storms and Precipitation
The October statewide average precipitation was 2.69”, which was 1.50” below the 1991–2020 mean and ranked 55th driest. Like September, the Southern and Coastal divisions were both wetter than in the north (Figure 3). The Southern division led with 2.86" (1.17" below normal and 59th driest), followed by the Coastal division at 2.69" (-1.40", 50th driest), and the Northern division with 2.43" (-2.02", 44th driest).
Figure 3. October 2026 total precipitation (left) and percentage of seasonal normal based on the 30-year monthly climatology (right) from PRISM (Oregon State, https://prism.oregonstate.edu).
October 1–4
A stalled frontal boundary south of New Jersey brought unsettled weather at the start of the month. Although the rainfall was light, several rounds occurred over multiple days. The wet period began during the morning hours of Thursday (10/1), with light showers in the northern half of the state. More showers moved through Friday (10/2) afternoon, including a more organized line that pushed through South Jersey and lingering light rain that lasted into Saturday morning. On Sunday (10/4), a stronger area of low pressure triggered more widespread showers across the entire state. Less than 0.50” of rain fell over the entire period, with the highest amounts across South Jersey and the lowest amounts across North Jersey and the Highlands (Figure 4).
Figure 4. New Jersey Weather Network (NJWxNet) precipitation between October 1 and October 4, 2026.
October 11–12
The month’s most notable storm event occurred when New Jersey was impacted by the remnants of Hurricane Isaias. Isaias was the first Atlantic hurricane to form during a historically quiet season across the basin. After making landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast on Friday (10/9), Isaias transitioned to an extratropical low-pressure system. The remnants of Isaias later tracked over central New Jersey on Sunday (10/11).
The primary impacts of the storm were heavy rain and gusty winds. 261 CoCoRaHS stations reported 1” or more of rainfall from the storm, with 152 stations reporting more than 2” of rainfall (Figure 5). Isolated amounts over 3” were reported by CoCoRaHS observers in Cinnaminson (3.41”), Stafford Twp. (3.30”), and Lacey Twp. (3.13”). 25 of 69 NJWxNet stations recorded over 2” for the day, including Basking Ridge (2.59”) and Little Falls (2.53”). New daily rainfall records were set at the Atlantic City Airport (2.11”) and Trenton (1.75”). Flooding impacts were limited across New Jersey since the rainfall was spread throughout the day, although the USGS river gauge at Reaville on the Neshanic River did rise above flood stage during the event. The NJWxNet recorded modest wind gusts greater than 30 mph statewide during the storm, with 39 mph peak gusts occurring in Sea Girt and Seaside Heights (Figure 6).
Figure 5. Two-day total rainfall from CoCoRaHS reports on October 10–11, 2026 (CoCoRaHS observations reported on the mornings of October 11 and 12).
Figure 6. New Jersey Weather Network (NJWxNet) maximum wind gusts on Sunday, October 11, 2026.
October 16–17
A warm front moved northward through New Jersey on Friday morning (10/16), bringing scattered showers. Later in the afternoon, a severe thunderstorm watch was issued for the entire state as a strong cold front approached from the west. Several downed trees were reported in Hunterdon County as the front passed, but severe impacts were limited as the line of storms weakened as it crossed the state. Light rain continued behind the cold front – especially across South Jersey – before conditions cleared on Saturday afternoon. Rainfall amounts were under 0.50” throughout the state, with a few stations reporting just over 0.75” in parts of Cumberland and Atlantic counties (Figure 7).
Figure 7. Two-day total rainfall from CoCoRaHS reports on October 16–17, 2026 (CoCoRaHS observations reported on the mornings of October 17 and 18).
October 20–24
Another early-season storm developed off the southern Mid-Atlantic coast, and on October 21, it was named Subtropical Storm Josephine as it acquired tropical characteristics. Unlike the late-September nor’easter that brought significant impacts to coastal New Jersey, Josephine’s track remained far enough offshore to prevent a repeat performance of rainfall and coastal flooding. The state remained dry throughout the entire period, with impacts limited to coastal flooding and rough surf. The peak water levels at most tide gauges occurred during Wednesday evening’s (10/21) high tide cycle, with water levels generally 2 feet or less above mean higher high water (MHHW) levels. The back bay areas of Barnegat Bay were most impacted and experienced multiple rounds of minor coastal flooding from Tuesday (10/20) through Saturday (10/25). In contrast to the September storm, no moderate or major coastal flooding levels were observed.
Temperatures
October 2026's statewide average temperature of 57.3°F was 1.9° above normal and ranked as the 21st warmest of the past 132 Octobers (Figure 8). The Northern climate division averaged 55.2° (+1.9°, 24th warmest), the Southern division 58.5° (+2.0°, 18th warmest), and the Coastal division 59.2° (+1.6°, 20th warmest).
Unlike September, when anomalous overnight warmth drove the overall positive statewide monthly temperature departure, the opposite occurred in October, with daytime warmth dominating. This is not terribly surprising given the overall dry conditions during October, which would favor cooler nights, with less cloud cover and near-surface humidity that typically accompany wetter conditions. The average high of 69.0° was 3.2° above normal and 13th warmest. The average low of 45.6° was just 0.7° above normal and ranked 31st warmest.
Figure 8. October 2026 average temperature (left) and departure from 30-year monthly climatology (right) from PRISM (Oregon State, https://prism.oregonstate.edu).
October started off very warm across New Jersey, with statewide temperatures running ~10°F above average for early October. 43 of 68 NJWxNet stations reported highs of 80°F or higher on Thursday, 10/1, and 42 recorded highs of 85°F or higher on Friday, 10/2.
New Jersey experienced a brief period of fall-like chilly weather on Tuesday (10/6) and Wednesday (10/7). Ideal radiational cooling conditions led to New Jersey’s first freeze of the season on Tuesday morning: 31°F at the NJWxNet station in Walpack. Conditions were even colder on Wednesday morning, when the morning low at Walpack was 30°F, while Sandyston (30°F) and Pequest (32°F) saw their first freeze.
Record warmth overtook New Jersey on Wednesday (10/14). High temperatures reached the 80s in the central and northern parts of the state and the mid- to upper-80s across South Jersey. The highest temperature of the day was 88°F at the NJWxNet station at Cape May Court House. The Cooperative Observer station at Estell Manor set a record high temperature for the day of 87°F, replacing the old record of 86°F set in 1985. New daily maximum high temperature records were also set at the Atlantic City International Airport (85°F, previously 83°F set in 1990) and the Millville Municipal Airport (85°F, previously 84°F set in 1975).
The cold front's passage on Friday (10/16) brought about a significant change in the airmass over New Jersey. During the third week of October, high temperatures remained consistent in the 60s, while the state experienced much colder overnight temperatures. On the morning of Sunday (10/18), more stations in interior central and southern New Jersey experienced their first freeze. The cool, dry, fall-like weather persisted for the following week, and another widespread round of frost and freeze occurred again the following weekend. Temperatures at or below freezing were recorded at 28 of 70 NJWxNet stations on Saturday (10/24), and 29 of 70 stations on Sunday (10/25) – including the month’s coldest temperature: 22°F at Walpack on Sunday morning.
Figure 9. Heavy frost on the morning of October 18 in Lafayette Township (Sussex County). Photo by Nick Stefano.
The weather moderated during the final week of October. Mean statewide temperatures were ~9°F above average on Friday (10/30), while more typical daytime temperatures for the end of October returned for Halloween trick-or-treating on 10/31.